I set myself a dollar limit (usually, what I can afford, ranging from $10-$30). Then I just pick ones that I know I have photos for OR, if I don't have any specifically themed photos, I choose the one that is most calling my name.
Any leftover money from my budget, I buy cheaper goodies like stitching packs or frames or anything else I want, since many of those kind of go with everything, and they're great for using up that last little 1 or 2 dollars I gave myself that a full kit may cost more than!
Or, sometimes I just buy the first one that jumps out.
I usually deliberate for a loooong time... I open up all the kits that jump out to me at first, and all the kits I have photos for. Then, I close ones that I could live without for another month. Then, I close the ones that I can only envision using for one or two layouts at the moment (that I don't have enough pictures for, or enough pictureless layouts that I could justify using it for, etc). By then, I'm usually narrowed down ALMOST to my budget, so I just flip through them until one or two jump out!
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